FITZROY RIVER BARRAMUNDI FORECAST SEASON 2017
There are a total of 10 forecasts made for Barramundi in size of fish, catch rates, trends in stocks and recruitment. Taggers catch rates do not reflect the catch rates of the total fishing population however as taggers are generally in the top 20% of fishers that catch most fish their catches are more sensitive to changes in fish stocks and are comparable from year to year. Forecasts are available from www.crystal-bowl.com.au.
Season 2017 forecasts
Taggers/Avids
- Fish from strong recruitment in 2013 and 2014 will be legal size in 2017 and will result in increased numbers of legal fish and an increase in the catch rate of legal fish
- Overall catch rates will remain steady and may increase slightly if the forecast moderate recruitment eventuates
- Forecast for recruitment is moderate with neutral to weak La Niña conditions during the recruitment period (Jan-Apr)
- However due to the increase in spawning stock due to no commercial netting recruitment could be higher than forecast
- Stock level to remain steady or decline slightly with natural and fishing mortality to be offset by moderate recruitment
Rocky Barra Bounty
- Forecasts for the Bounty 2017 will be made in Jun 2017 as there are proposed changes to the event that may affect forecasts
Environmental conditions
- Neutral to weak La Niña conditions are forecast for the recruitment period (Jan-Apr) with an average wet season
- Rainfall and river flows in late Dec-early Feb will be critical to recruitment success although the rainfall outlook suggests recruitment may be weaker than forecast
Infofish Australia
November 2016
| MEASURE | FORECAST |
ACTUAL |
GRAPH |
|---|---|---|---|
| FITZROY | 2017 |
2017 |
|
| Fish sizes Undersize fish 200-579mm Legal - trophy fish 580-999mm Trophy fish >1m |
|
|
|
|
Actual catch rates taggers and avid fishers |
Taggers/Bounty Overall |
|
|
| Catch rates percentage change compared with 2016 |
Taggers/avids Overall |
|
|
| Barramundi tags in river indicator of trends in stock Most likely and range 2009-2017 |
Tagged fish 2017 (Jan-Dec) 1,500 (1,200-1,800) |
|
|
| Recruitment Recruits/fisher/day |
Moderate 1.5 (1.0-2.0) |
|
|
| 12 Mile recruitment benchmark site | Moderate 100 (50-150) Revised mod-strong 200 (150-250) |
|
|
| Climate outlook to Feb 2018 | BOM NINO34 Neutral to weak La Niña conditions for recruitment period Jan-Apr |
|
|
| Rainfall Outlook Nov-Jan | BOM forecast 35-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall |
|
DATA SOURCES
Data used in the Fitzroy Barramundi Crystal Bowl are:- Tag and catch records from Captag and other local taggers for maps FRR, RAG and CIS from http://qld.info-fish.net
- Recapture records of tagged fish from http://qld.info-fish.net
- Commercial catch for QFISH grids R29 and R30 from http://qfish.daf.qld.gov.au to 2015 (Net Free Zone from 2016)
- Tagged fish in commercial catch from seafood processors to 2015
- Tag and catch records from Rocky Barra Bounty from http://qld.info-fish.net
- Recruitment surveys for Suntag maps FRR, RAG and CIS from http://qld.info-fish.net
- Bureau of Meteorology POAMA NINO 34 long-range outlook at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml
- Bureau of Meteorology climate outlook at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/
- River flow records for Fitzroy River at the Gap station 130005A from https://water-monitoring.information.qld.gov.au
- Rainfall records for Rockhampton station 039083 from http://www.bom.gov.au/ and Cheetham Saltworks station at 12 Mile Creek from Cheetham Salt
- Stocked fish records from Stocking Groups in the Fitzroy catchment