GLADSTONE BARRAMUNDI FORECAST SEASON 2017

There are a total of 11 forecasts made for Barramundi in size of fish, catch rates, trends in stocks, recruitment and commercial catch. Taggers catch rates do not reflect the catch rates of the total fishing population however as taggers are generally in the top 20% of fishers that catch most fish their catches are more sensitive to changes in fish stocks and are comparable from year to year. Forecasts are available from www.crystal-bowl.com.au.

Season 2017 forecasts

Taggers/Avids

  • Overall catch rate and catch rate for legal fish will fall again in 2017
  • Forecast for recruitment is moderate with neutral conditions during the recruitment period (Jan-Apr) although the rainfall outlook is more pessimistic for recruitment
  • Stock level to decline further with natural and fishing mortality unlikely to be offset by poor/moderate recruitment

Commercial Fishers

  • Commercial Barramundi catch data for 2016 is only available for Feb-Aug so there has only been a preliminary forecast of a drop in the catch rate
  • Commercial catch forecasts will be updated when the complete data for the 2016 are available

Environmental conditions

  • Neutral to conditions are forecast for the recruitment period (Jan-Apr) with an average wet season and a trend toward El Niño later in the year
  • Rainfall and river flows in late Dec-early Feb will be critical to recruitment success although the rainfall outlook suggests recruitment may be weaker than forecast

Infofish Australia
January 2017

MEASURE FORECAST

ACTUAL

GRAPH

GLADSTONE 2017

2017

Fish sizes
Undersize fish 200-579mm
Legal - trophy fish 580-999mm
Trophy fish >1m


25% (15-35%)
70% (65-85%)
25% (15-35%)

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Actual catch rates taggers and avid fishers
Fish/fisher/day

Fish/tagger/day

Overall
1.1 (0.9-1.3)
Legal fish
0.8 (0.6-1.0)

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Catch rates percentage change compared with 2016

Taggers/avids

Overall
-15% (-5%--25%)
Legal fish
-20% (-10--30%)
Commercial
-30% (-20--40%)

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Barramundi tags in Gladstone indicator of trends in stock
Model tagged fish
Most likely and range
Tagged fish 2017 (Jan-Dec)
150 (50-250)
-30% (-20--40%)
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Recruitment
Recruits/fisher/day
Poor/Moderate
0.1 (0.05-0.15)
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Climate outlook BOM NINO34
Neutral to weak La Niña conditions for recruitment period Jan-Apr
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Rainfall Outlook Nov-Jan BOM forecast
35-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall
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DATA SOURCES

Data used in the Fitzroy Barramundi Crystal Bowl are: