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Mid-Season Forecasts for Gladstone 2016 (high reliability)

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  • Low-moderate recruitment in Gladstone in 2013, moderate in 2014 and strong in 2015 will continue to see low numbers of undersized fish
  • Larger fish that spilled from Lake Awoonga from 2011-2015 will continue to see high numbers of legal sized fish
  • Recruitment forecast as poor in 2016 and mid-season assessment was poor
  • Gladstone catch rates will remain steady
  • Gladstone commercial catch will rise but effect of possible effort shift from Fitzroy following introduction of Net Free Area unknown

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MEASURE FORECAST
Fish in size range 0-449mm 0-20%
Fish in size range 450-579mm 20-40%
Fish in size range 580-799mm 30-50%
Fish in size range 800-1200mm 10-30%

 

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MEASURE FORECAST
Taggers actual catch rates Overall 1.4-1.7 fish/tagger/day
Legal fish 1.0-1.2 fish/tagger/day

 

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MEASURE FORECAST
Taggers catch rates for legal fish compared with 2015 Overall up 0-20%
Legal fish up 10% to down 10%

 

GL_GR2[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]

MEASURE FORECAST
Commercial Catch Up 0-20%
90-110kg/day
27-33t

 

GL_GR5[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]

MEASURE FORECAST
Barramundi tags in Gladstone (new forecast)
Tags worst-case scenario
60% annual reduction
Tags middle-case scenario
50% annual reduction in tags
Tags best-case scenario
40% annual reduction in tags
Tagged fish 2016
250-350 Down 10% to Up 10%
compared with 2015

 

GL_GR7[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]

MEASURE FORECAST
Recruitment Poor <0.5 recruit/fisher/day

 

GL_GR4[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]

MEASURE FORECAST
Lake Awoonga levels
from GAWB website http://www.gawb.qld.gov.au/
Unlikely to spill to Oct 2016

 

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MEASURE FORECAST
NINO 34 projections

from BOM website

BOM POAMA

Neutral to La Niña conditions to end of 2016

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MEASURE PREDICTED
Rainfall outlook

from BOM website BOM Climate Outlook

75-80% of above median rainfall Jun-Aug

BOM_RAINFALL[/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text]Environmental conditions[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]The Crystal Bowl was extended to Gladstone for Barramundi in 2013 as part of the Gladfish project. This followed the spilling of an estimated 30,000+ (GAWB estimate 20,000) in 2011 and significant fish health issues in Gladstone Harbour in 2011 and 2012.

The area covered includes Gladstone Harbour, Calliope River, Boyne River, South Trees Inlet and the Narrows. Suntag maps GLD, Cr02, BRG and CISG cover the area included.

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]DATA SOURCES

 

Data used in the Gladstone Crystal Bowl are:

  • Tag and catch records from Gladstone Sportfishing Club and other local taggers for maps GLD, CR02, BRG and CISG from http://qld.info-fish.net
  • Recapture records of tagged fish http://qld.info-fish.net
  • Commercial catch for QFISH grids S30 and S31 from http://qfish.daf.qld.gov.au
  • Long Term Monitoring Program age records from DAF
  • Recruitment surveys for Suntag maps GLD, CR02, BRG and CISG from http://qld.info-fish.net
  • River flow records for Calliope River at the Castlehope station 132001A from https://water-monitoring.information.qld.gov.au
  • Awoonga Dam Water Levels and Rainfall data from GAWB http://www.gawb.qld.gov.au/
  • Rainfall records for Gladstone station 049083 from http://www.bom.gov.au/
  • Rainfall outlook for Gladstone from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0
  • BOM long range NINO34 forecasts from http://www.bom.gov.au/
  • Stocked fish records for Lake Awoonga and Lake Callemondah

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