FITZROY RIVER KING THREADFIN FORECAST SEASON 2017

There are a total of 9 forecasts made for King Threadfin in size of fish, catch rates, trends in stocks and recruitment. Taggers catch rates do not reflect the catch rates of the total fishing population however as taggers are generally in the top 20% of fishers that catch most fish their catches are more sensitive to changes in fish stocks and are comparable from year to year. Forecasts are available from www.crystal-bowl.com.au.

Season 2017 forecasts

Taggers/Avids

  • Most fish (75%) will be in the legal-trophy size range with fewer undersized fish (20%)
  • Overall catch rates will remain steady and rise slightly for legal fish
  • Catch rates will remain much the same as in 2016
  • Stock levels based on numbers of tagged fish forecast to remain steady at 2016 level
  • Based on forecasts for the 2017 wet season it is likely that recruitment will be poor-moderate

Rocky Barra Bounty

  • Forecasts for the Bounty 2017 will be made in Jun 2017 as there are proposed changes to the event that may affect forecasts

Environmental conditions

  • Neutral conditions are forecast for the recruitment period (Dec-Apr) with a 35-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall from Jan-Mar
  • Longer term forecast is for a likely return to ElNiño later in 2017

Infofish Australia
January 2017

MEASURE FORECAST

ACTUAL

GRAPH

FITZROY 2017

2017

Fish sizes
Undersize fish 200-599mm
Legal - trophy fish 600-999mm
Trophy fish >1m


20% (10-30%)
75% (65-85%)
5% (0-15%)

click to enlarge

Actual catch rates taggers and avid fishers
Fish/fisher/day

Fish/tagger/day

Taggers/Bounty

Overall
1.1 (0.9-1.3)
Legal fish
0.9 (0.7-1.1)

click to enlarge
Catch rates percentage change compared with 2016

Taggers/avids

Overall
-20-+20%
Legal fish
-10-+30%

click to enlarge
King Threadfin tags in river indicator of trends in stock
Most likely and range
2009-2017
Tagged fish 2017 (Jan-Dec)
400 (300-500)
click to enlarge
Recruitment
Recruits/fisher/day
Poor/Moderate
click to enlarge
Climate outlook BOM NINO34
Neutral conditions for recruitment period Dec-Apr
click to enlarge
Rainfall Outlook Jan-Mar BOM forecast
35-40% chance of exceeding median rainfall
click to enlarge

DATA SOURCES

Data used in the Fitzroy King Threadfin Crystal Bowl are: